China’s Humanoid Robot Output to Surge 94% as Unitree and AgiBot Dominate
Two Chinese companies are set to capture 80% of global humanoid shipments
TrendForce’s April 9, 2026 report projects that China’s humanoid robot output will grow 94% year-over-year in 2026, with Unitree Robotics and AgiBot capturing nearly 80% of total global shipments between them. The numbers, drawn from independent industry analysis rather than vendor targets, represent a dramatic shift in the global robotics landscape.
Unitree, which recently had its IPO application accepted on China’s STAR market, projects 2026 shipments of 10,000-20,000 humanoid units — up from roughly 5,500 in 2025. AgiBot reached its 10,000th unit milestone in late March 2026, scaling from 1,000 units in early 2025 to 5,000, then doubling to 10,000 within three months.
US competitors falter
The Chinese surge comes as US humanoid companies stumble. Tesla entered 2025 promising 5,000 Optimus units; actual production landed somewhere between several hundred and 1,200 units before a mid-2025 parts procurement halt. On Tesla’s January 2026 call, Elon Musk acknowledged that meaningful Optimus volumes won’t start until late 2026.
Figure, another well-funded US startup, retired its entire Figure 02 fleet back to headquarters after an 11-month pilot at BMW’s Spartanburg plant. The company has not announced a new deployment timeline.
“When the headline US humanoid program misses its 2025 target by 4-10x, the procurement reference number stops being the manufacturer press release and starts being whatever TrendForce publishes,” noted the report’s authors.
Unitree’s financials challenge the “cash-burning” narrative
Unitree’s STAR market prospectus reveals that in 2025, revenue from humanoid robots surpassed quadruped robots for the first time, accounting for over 51% of total revenue. Combined gross margin across both segments reached 60% — challenging the perception that robotics is a purely money-losing business.
The company has committed to expanding capacity to 75,000 humanoid robots and 115,000 quadruped robots annually, which would drive upstream expansion in joint modules, dexterous hands, and sensors.
Price advantage
The cost differential is striking. Unitree’s H2 humanoid robot is priced at approximately $16,000-$24,000, while Tesla’s Optimus is expected to cost $50,000-$60,000 at volume. AgiBot’s Expedition A3 targets a similar price point to Unitree. For factory managers running CapEx models, the Chinese robots are one-third the cost of their American alternatives.
The tradeoff is reliability and software maturity. Chinese humanoid robots excel at repetitive tasks in controlled environments but lag behind in the kind of adaptive, general-purpose capabilities that Western companies promise. Whether that tradeoff matters depends on the use case.
Where this goes
TrendForce expects the second half of 2026 to mark a shift from foundational capabilities (perception, balance, semantic understanding) toward delivering tangible user value. The convergence of large language models with general-purpose robots — what the industry calls “embodied AI” — is the next frontier.
If Unitree’s STAR market IPO succeeds, it could reset industry valuations and improve financing conditions across the entire Chinese robotics supply chain.
Sources
- TrendForce, “China’s Humanoid Robot Output to Surge 94% in 2026,” April 9, 2026
- AgentMarketCap, “TrendForce: China Humanoid Output Surges 94%,” April 18, 2026
- eWeek, “China’s 2026 Plan: Move 10,000 Humanoid Robots From Labs to Factories”
- Unitree Robotics STAR Market IPO prospectus, March 2026